Recession dating game
In a world where economic indicators come with a lag, most data is naturally backward looking.
Inversions of the yield curve, however, have preceded recessions for the past 50 years, North says.
Most experts say there’s no need to panic just yet, but there are a number of datasets you may want to watch to help signal future economic shocks.
They’re generally referred to as “indicators,” and they’re what experts read when trying to spot-check the health of the national economy.
The 10-year, three-month spread inverted on March 22 for the first time since 2007, but it soon recovered.“The relationship between confidence and spending is pretty loose in the short run,” Sweet says.The day the monthly jobs report is released is often economists’ favorite day of the month.Every week, a variety of these statistics are released.Though there’s no best indicator to follow, some are more widely watched than others.